Salary Cap Chronicles – Week 4

Well, that was ugly. After a nice Week 2 win at Head2Head.com, I decided to play the sweet Arizona schedule and use the red hot Chris Young. He then crashed into a wall and went on the DL just as Head2Head week 3 started. In a points game like this, you just can’t take zeroes and expect to compete in the overall points. To add insult to injury, Adrian Beltre pulled up lame with a hammy on Saturday, which led to more zeroes. On the bright side, our seven-game home plays of Derek Jeter and Nick Swisher have gone crazy so far, Ian Kinsler keeps hitting no matter where he is playing and the risk of playing the most expensive pitching staff is paying off quite nicely. I did lose a start coming up from Cliff Lee, but Philly has been large and still has two games left.

Fantasy baseball got wacky again as a rash of injuries hit this weekend out of nowhere. Usually we know guys are banged up or struggling a bit before they go on the DL, but highly drafted players Cliff Lee, Daniel Hudson and Sergio Santos all hit the DL this weekend. The joy of Head2Head is that with a new roster each week, we can just swap out the injured guys. It is very nice that a long-term injury doesn’t cripple us like it can in some draft leagues.

Alright, time to move forward to Week 4. There are a number of teams with seven games and only the Cardinals have five games during this period. Among the seven-game teams, the ones that look best for offense are Detroit, Baltimore, Toronto and Tampa Bay. The Orioles get five home games and then two in Yankee Stadium, while the Tigers also visit Yankee Stadium for a three-game series to go with four homes games. The Rays get to visit Arlington in their seven-game week, while the Blue Jays have six homes games, plus one in Baltimore. Among the six-game teams in nice parks, the Yankees and Rockies play five of their games at home and the Rangers get four at home and two in Toronto. What a fantastic week for offense!

Catcher: It looks like I will go back to Matt Wieters this week. Miguel Montero has been a disappointment for his all home week while Wieters has continued his hot start. Among other options, Alex Avila looks like an excellent play this week with his seven-game schedule. If you wanted to save a little bit cap (but not enough in my opinion), J.P. Arencibia could be an interesting option. He has a nice schedule and seems to finally be hitting after a very slow start.

First Base: Eric Hosmer was a letdown for the second straight week, but with a seven-game schedule and a nice cap number, I think I will save the move and leave him in. He seems to be coming around a little bit, but I sure don’t like three of the games in Target Field. If I were to swap Hosmer out for someone more expensive, Mark Teixeira is a nice option again this week as are Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder with seven games. Albert Pujols also has seven games, but it is tough to pay his price tag right now while he scuffles, but if you want to try and time him, he is very likely to return to normal soon. If one were looking for a cheaper option, Ike Davis does get three games in Coors Field, but he has been struggling too. I think I will stick with Hosmer for one more try.

Second Base: This one seems easy this week. I have Ian Kinsler in and he continues to hit and has a nice schedule. I think he is easily the strongest play this week and I will leave him in. If for some reason, you wanted to fade Kinsler this week at home and at Toronto (you shouldn’t), then either Kelly Johnson or Ben Zobrist seem like excellent choices.

Third Base: With Adrian Beltre nursing his wore hamstring and his status up in the air, I have to swap him out this week even though Texas has a nice schedule. The obvious call is to go Miguel Cabrera for his seven games and I would love to, but his price tag is very high. He will be tough for me to fit in this week. Hanley Ramirez is another option with seven and he seems to be the Hanley of old lately. I think I am going to look to Toronto this week for my third baseman though. They have two great options this week in Brett Lawrie and Edwin Encarnacion. I like them both, so will play the cheap guy and go with Ency, who is an absolutely fantastic value at $6.8.

Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki has five games in Coors, which is always appealing even though he only plays six games this week. Derek Jeter has been absolutely fantastic this year and with five home games plus a game in Texas, I think I will save the move and leave him in. He does face Justin Verlander, but aside from that, I like his matchups. If I were to swap out Jeter, it would likely be for Tulo, but if you are looking for someone cheaper, I suppose Jhonny Peralta could be a play for his seven at much less money than Jeter, but I think Tulo and Jeter are clearly the calls at SS this week.

Outfield: There are a ton of good options in the OF this week with so many good teams either having seven games or nice six-game weeks. I am not in love with Cameron Maybin right now, but he has seven games and the cap savings are just too good to pass up. In one of the other spots, I have to jump at the chance to play Adam Jones for his seven games. He is not only hitting well, but seems to be adding value with some stolen bases also. If you have the cap for Jose Bautista, I get the feeling he is about to break out large this week. Some other great pricier plays this week with their schedule are Austin Jackson, Curtis Granderson, Desmond Jennings or B.J. Upton. If one is looking to save cap in the OF, Matt Joyce is an excellent option this week with three games in Texas and five of his seven games against right-handers. I am going to go with the Texas schedule over the Rockies schedule this week and play Nelson Cruz in my last OF spot over Carlos Gonzalez. I would love to play Josh Hamilton while he is this white hot, but the cap just did not work out there for me this week. There really is an abundance of great OF plays this week.


Flex: After the week Nick Swisher has had, I am certainly going to leave him in for his five home games plus one at Texas this week. Swish is on fire and I see no reason to use a move to take him out.

Pitching Staff: The Phillies have been a very nice boost this week playing in Petco, but clearly I will be swapping them out this week at their tag with only six games. The Angels look like a great option this week with seven games and two C.J. Wilson starts. The Angels pitching staff is stacked with studs and they are due to get hot, but I just wish Jerome Williams wasn’t the other starter with two starts. Tampa is also an interesting choice with seven games, including two vs. Seattle, but they also get three @ Texas, which is always scary. I don’t love any of the other options with seven games and I strongly believe you want to max games form your pitching staff, so I am going to go with the Angels for this week. I know they are expensive and it keeps me from playing Miggy or Bautista or Hamilton, but I really think they are the best of the options this week so I will ride with them.

In summary, this is where I am going barring any late injuries like last week:

C: Matt Wieters ($8.2)
1B: Eric Hosmer ($9.0)
2B: Ian Kinsler ($9.0)
3B: Edwin Encarnacion ($6.8)
SS: Derek Jeter ($9.0)
OF: Adam Jones ($9.5)
OF: Nelson Cruz ($10.1)
OF: Cameron Maybin ($5.0)
Flex: Nick Swisher ($8.8)
SP: Los Angeles Angels ($24.5) 

Good luck to everyone in Week 4!

Salary Cap Chronicles – Baseball Week 3

A season that started wacky has not yet regained any normalcy. Almost every closer not named Javy Guerra has been an adventure and a 4th top-15 closer (“The Beard” joins Madson, Soria and Bailey) is out for the year. Albert Pujols has not hit a home run and Tim Lincecum, Zack Greinke and Adam Wainwright have suffered through blowups usually reserved for the Bronson Arroyos of the world. All of this merely tells us that it is still early. Make sure not to panic and then simultaneously hope that people in your league do panic.  One thing is for sure though; it’s time for these slumping guys to get going!

As we move on to Week 3 of the Head2Head season, we have a very odd week before us. Most of the teams that we like to play home splits with are spending a majority of Week 3 on the road, including Texas, Colorado, Cincinnati, Philadelphia and the White Sox. The Yankees are also on the road for 5 of their 7 games, but present an interesting option with their road games in Boston and Texas. Among teams with fortuitous schedules are Milwaukee and Arizona, who both play seven games at home. No one has a five-game week, which is very nice, as we will not have to automatically avoid anyone.

As for Week 2, it has gone well, but not exceptionally well. As of Sunday night, I hold about a 45-point lead in my matchup, but there are 4-5 teams ahead of me in overall points in my league, which is not what I am looking for. There are still two days of games left, but I am not especially pleased with my Week 2 output. Let’s see how Week 3 shapes up.

Catcher: Matt Wieters has been a disappointment in Week 2 with only six points so far. I am leaning towards swapping him out for Miguel Montero this week for the seven-game home Arizona week. It may be a lateral talent swap, but Montero is solid, well-priced and plays in a very nice home park. He may be someone that can be played in multiple week stretches. Another nice option this week is Yadier Molina with seven games. I like Montero a bit more due to his higher power ceiling, but Yadi has been flat killing it.

First Base: After putting my love on display for Eric Hosmer, he has had a fairly quiet Week 2. He has been ok this week, but nothing special. I am leaning towards keeping him in there another week to save a move and hopefully be on board when he gets hot again. He only has six games, but doesn’t really face any pitchers I am worried about except Ricky Romero. Mark Teixeira is an interesting play this week with the nice schedule of games as is Paul Goldschmidt if you want to save some cap and bet that Goldy breaks out of his early funk.

Second Base: I am excellent at mixing metaphors and once told a friend that we would tackle that bridge when we got there. So I will just say that Ian Kinsler falls into the category of if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it (did I actually do that right?). Kinsler is killing it this year and I am going to leave him this week for seven games, even though five are on the road. I love the way he looks, he is not THAT pricey and it saves me a move. If one was to swap in a 2B this week, Robinson Cano is a great call on the high end and it feels like he has to get white-hot soon and if you wanted to go cheaper than Cano, Aaron Hill could be a nice play. Two other names to consider this week are Rickie Weeks with seven home games or perhaps “His Name is Dan Uggla” with seven games if you think he finally gets hot.

Third Base: Adrian Beltre has been ok for me this week, but not great. I will likely just leave him in there with 7 games as his price provides good value, even with five road games. If you want to play great schedules this week, both Alex Rodriguez and Aramis Ramirez are excellent seven-game plays at 3B this week.

Shortstop: Seven-game home version of Troy Tulowitzki has not been quite as explosive as I hoped for and he has just been ok this week, but the joy of all home weeks in Colorado is even when they don’t go off, they still do pretty darn well. He still has a couple of games left to explode, but I will definitely be swapping him out this week at his price. The choices that jump out this week are Starlin Castro and Derek Jeter with nice seven-game schedules. Castro has been very solid to start 2012 and Jeter appears to have turned back the clock, at least early this year. Neither guy is cheap, but this is a spot that it is tough to find value so far. I’m going to play some schedule and go with Jeets.

Outfield: The OF has been a mixed bag so far in Week 2. The two Rockies with full home schedules are both over 20 points for the week, but unfortunately, CarGo has been suffering from strep throat and has missed the last three games. Fowler hasn’t really gone off, but 22 points so far at his tag will work just fine. We will be back for more Dex when the Rockies have more home weeks. Cameron Maybin has been less than exciting this week, but at $5 million, he is there for cap relief and hopefully helps our scoring at the same time. I will leave Cam in, but swap out both the Rockies.

Chris Young is leading the D-Backs with explosive offense

In one spot, I am going to definitely play the red hot Chris Young with seven games in the desert. He is priced well at $7.9 and we don’t have to worry about his batting downside in this game nearly as much. Andre Ethier has seven games and is not too expensive, but I decided to pass after seeing he faced lefties in four of his seven games. At the other spot, I am going to save some more cap (instead of going with Justin Upton for his seven since he is battling a sore thumb) and go with Corey Hart, who has started hot and has seven home games.

Flex: Andrew McCutchen has been a huge letdown with a total of 10 points through five games. He has been a huge waste of a big cap number and we will be swapping him out for Week 3. In his spot, I am going to slide in Nick Swisher for the Yankees schedule we have detailed above. I like the Yankees to break out on offense this week and Swisher is a nice price here at $8.8 in the middle of that Yankees lineup.

Pitching: The Giants have been a solid play this period even with the huge egg laid by Tim Lincecum in their first game of the week. They are up to 38 points on the week (through Sunday) with Lincecum and Bumgarner starts still left, so it appears that they were an excellent value at under $20 this week. As for Week 3, it is going to be very difficult to get away from the Phillies this week. Using them not only gets you Cliff Lee twice, but also gets you 4 games at Petco against the anemic Padres offense. You think Hamels and Doc can deal in Petco a little? Yikes. You may have noticed I went cheap in the OF this week and the reason is that I am taking the leap and using the Phillies at $25. I don’t plan on using them often this season, but the schedule this week as well as 2 games from Cliff Lee really calls for it. If you don’t want to commit that much money on your pitching staff, a few really good cheaper options this week are Milwaukee at $20.5 with seven games and two Zack Greinke starts, and the Cardinals at $21.9 with seven games and two starts from Garcia and Wainwright. If you want to go even cheaper, I think the White Sox are a very sneaky play this week with seven games and opponents with weak offenses in Baltimore, Seattle and Oakland, with the latter two on the road in a great pitcher’s park. You also get two starts each from Peavy and Gavin Floyd who both threw gems last time out. They are the best cheap option this week among the pitching staffs.

In summary, here is my team this week:

C: Miguel Montero ($8.3)

1B: Eric Hosmer ($9.0)

2B: Ian Kinsler ($9.0)

3B: Adrian Beltre ($9.0)

SS: Derek Jeter ($9.0)

OF: Chris Young ($7.9)

OF: Corey Hart ($9.0)

OF: Cameron Maybin ($5.0)

Flex: Nick Swisher ($8.8)

P: Philadelphia Phillies ($25)

Total: $100 on the nose (That has to be bad luck right?)

Good luck to everyone in Week 3, as always feel free to hit me on Twitter @ScottJenstad with anything.

Salary Cap Chronicles – Baseball Week 2

Wow, what a crazy first week of fantasy baseball. I have never seen more blown saves and as someone who drafted Andrew Bailey in the NFBC Main Event last weekend, it has not been a fun start of the season to me. I hate chasing saves and I have been backed in that corner in the first week of the season. I dropped a good amount of my FAAB on Hector Santiago, which is a risk, but in the NFBC, where there is no trading, I didn’t have much of a choice and I knew he would get heavy bidding with so many closer situations in flux. Hopefully he can keep the job, but saying I don’t trust Robin Ventura is a massive understatement.

The first week at H2H has been a bit better. I am writing this Monday morning so there are still two days of games left in Week 1, but the team I shared with you last week has a good sized lead in my head to head matchup and is in third place out of 30 in my league. One team is my league is at 182 for the week (I am at 150) so they are going crazy, but so far so good here. Let’s see how Week 2 is shaping up:

We get some normalcy finally this week as only 3 teams have 5 games in the Week period: Cleveland, St Louis and Toronto. Take note of this, as unless you see a huge value, you probably don’t want to give up 1-2 games to the field at a position. There are 11 teams with a 7-game week, so we will likely try and get as many guys from those teams assuming good matchups. Even more of note is Colorado who has seven home games in the friendly offensive confines of Coors Field. Coors isn’t quite as good in the spring as it is in the summer, but this will still be a nice week to try and get some Rockies in. The Diamondbacks are also an interesting play with seven games, including two at home and three at Coors, but they do get two in Petco.

Catcher: Matt Wieters has been just ok for Week 1, but still has two home games left. He is only at 9 points for the week, but hopefully he can build on that. With games at Toronto and at Chicago this week, both nice ballparks to hit in, I will probably save a move here and leave Wieters in. If I were going to swap Wieters, it would likely be for Miguel Montero at $8.3 with his nice schedule and 7 games. I think he is the best play for Week 2 at Catcher. Alex Avila is also hot (and proving me wrong to start) and has seven games this period so he could also be a nice play at $8.4. 

Hosmer is off to a great start and should continue to see success

First Base: Joey Votto has been just ok so far with only one nice game this week. With only six games this week and the Reds going on the road, I will take the opportunity to swap out Votto at his high price. Prince is a solid option with seven games, but note that he does face 3 lefties. How freaking good is Eric Hosmer?  It’s starting to look like he might be the value of the year at only $9.0. He does only have 6 this week and one of which is Verlander, but Hosmer is a flat stud at that price. If you want to save some cash, Kendrys Morales is a very intriguing option at $7.4 with seven games, assuming you think he doesn’t sit more than once. Of course, Albert has that same schedule and is the play if you have the cap this week. After deciding on the rest of the team, I decided to play the value here with Hosmer and spend the cap elsewhere. If he stays healthy, he might play for me a whole lot this year. I would also have no issue if you went with Cuddyer at $9.5, but I decided three Rockies were enough.

Second Base: Ian Kinsler has had a solid week so far with 2 games at home still left. I am tempted to leave him in (even without the all home schedule) and save the trade, but let’s see who the other good options are. Howie Kendrick is a nice play with 7 games at $7.8 as is Ben Zobrist at $8.2, but overall nothing jumps out at me as a must swap so I will keep Kinsler in who I think is going to be a monster this year.

Third Base: Adrian Beltre was struggling until last night when he broke out with an opposite field home run. Miggy Cabrera is clearly the obvious play for 7 games, but with my Rockies guys in this week, I just can’t afford him. If you can find a way to slot him in, more power to you, he is an odds-on favorite for most points in Week 2. If I were going to swap someone in, it would likely be Pablo Sandoval at $8.5 with 7 games, including 2 at Coors. He will be a very solid play for Week 3.

Shortstop: Alexei Ramirez was easily my worst call so far this week. He did nothing in the Texas series, which was very disappointing. Zack Cozart was clearly the play this week as he was cheap and has 20 points so far this week. This week is a slam-dunk to me with Colorado having seven home games. You don’t get weeks like that often and when you do, it’s time to play Troy Tulowitzki. I know he is very expensive, but with seven home games, I think you have to pay the price.

OF: My OF Week 1 of Josh Hamilton, Cameron Maybin and Matt Holliday has been solid, but unspectacular so far to start. Maybin, however, is such a sweet cap saver that his 18 points have been a huge find. I am going to leave Maybin in since he is such a value at the meager price tag, especially since he has 7 games and gets 3 in Denver too. In addition, I think Carlos Gonzalez is a slam-dunk play for me with 7 at home in Coors. Along the same lines, I am going to use another OF spot to save a little cap and play Dexter Fowler with 7 home games. He has not looked good so far this year (including an awful Spring Training), but I am hoping for a breakout week. Other plays I like a lot this week include 7 gamers Justin Upton ($11), Shane Victorino ($9) and Desmond Jennings ($9.2).

DH: Carlos Beltran has been great with 22 points so far at a tag of only $7.6. He is a guy I will look to play often this year at his price until he is hurt, but will have to swap him out this week with only 5 games. I am going to grab a guy I love with a little extra cap I have and play Andrew McCutchen for his seven. I know he gets 3 @ SF, but he does miss Lincecum and Bumgarner.

Pitching: The Dodgers have had a very solid week with only one day of negative points, and that is even with Kershaw leaving early with the flu. We still have another Kershaw start left for this week, so at 33 points already, the Dodgers look like they were a very solid play for Week 1. Detroit is an obvious first option with 7 games and Justin Verlander will start 2 of the games. Of course, Detroit is also a pricey option at $24.2. At a similar tag, the Angels are also interesting with 7 games. You get two starts from Haren and Big Erv, but note that the 3 of the games at in Yankee Stadium. On the flip side though, they also get 2 @ Minnesota and 2 home vs. the A’s. Clearly this is a week for the pricey pitching staffs as the Phillies are also a play with 2 Doc Halladay starts in the mix. The Giants present a very interesting option at a much better price tag of $19.7. With 7 games this week (albeit 2 @ Coors), you get two starts from not only Tim Lincecum, but also 2 from Madison Bumgarner. The last 5 games are also at home. The Giants’ stud starting pitchers have struggled so far, but at a 5 million dollar savings from the top end teams with 7, I think I will ride with them and hope they get it turned in the right direction. Another solid option if you are looking to save some cap is the Washington Nationals at $19.2. If you play them, you get two starts from Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez. They are a solid off-the-radar option, but I think I will stick with SF here.

In summary, here is my team this week. I used a lot (7) of changes this week, but we knew that would happen with the odd Week 1 setup with big game differences. In addition, the rare Colorado 7 game home week calls for some definite shuffling.

C: Matt Wieters ($8.2)

1B: Eric Hosmer ($9.2)

2B: Ian Kinsler ($9)

3B: Adrian Beltre ($9)

SS: Troy Tulowitzki ($11)

OF: Carlos Gonzalez ($11.5)

OF: Dexter Fowler ($7.2)

OF: Cameron Maybin ($5)

Flex: Andrew McCutchen ($10.3)

P: San Francisco Giants ($19.7)

 

Good luck to everyone in Week 2!

Salary Cap Chronicles – Baseball Week 1

Welcome to Week 1 of the MLB season and week 1 of Head2Head Sports, which we will be discussing in this article (head2head.com). Thank goodness we are finally here. After a month of draft prep, actual drafts and setting lineups, we finally get some games that count. In this article, we will take a look at some of the guys I consider values that may be under-priced, solid choices each week, and then also take a look at Week 1. First of all, we will take a look by position at who may be undervalued if you are looking for guys who might be playable for multiple weeks at a time. I have to give respect to whoever set the salaries at Head2Head as there are very few (maybe none) obvious “gimmes” that are clear every week plays to set in and forget it. That is great for roster diversity and for the overall challenge of the game.

Catcher: There is a very clear Top 7 tier in catchers this year (Top 8 if you include Alex Avila, which I do not). The two lowest priced guys of this tier are Miguel Montero ($8.3) and Matt Wieters ($8.2) and they would both be very good long-term plays if you wanted a solid, top tier catcher in the lineup. The key to remember with catchers is that this is a points contest and as you travel down the catcher list, you start to get guys who lose at-bats, which is always dangerous. If you are looking to save cap at catcher, a couple of workable options are Nick Hundley ($5.5) or Ramon Hernandez ($6.1) now that he is in Coors. I think the top tier guys are so much better in this case that it will be worth the extra money each week as we can find better value at other positions.

First Base: One of the premier positions in fantasy is not quite as elite as usual, especially in the National League. The top tier of guys is priced as it should be, so I think this will be a position that I will be changing quite often during the season trying to take advantage of matchups, park and number of games per week among the top guys. A couple of values if you wanted to save some cap at 1B that stick out to me are Billy Butler ($9.0), Paul Goldschmidt ($8.7), Ike Davis ($8.4) and Adam Lind ($8.2). The two guys to really keep an eye on at their price tag are Justin Morneau ($8.4) and Kendrys Morales ($7.4). These guys are studs who have gone through major injury issues, but if either one appear to be back to their normal self, they could be guys who you slot in and play every week at the price. Keep an eye on how these two start the season!

Second Base: This position is deeper than usual this year. There are a few elite guys at the top, but there are quite a few guys who could end up providing value from a position that is typically a very thin one. Among the upper tier guys, the values that stick out to me are Ian Kinsler ($9.0), Ben Zobrist ($8.2) and Howie Kendrick ($7.8). Kinsler is a guy I will try and play a lot of weeks when Texas is at home and Kendrick will see my lineup a lot too with his new lineup slot in front of El Hombre. Among the cheaper options, I like Kelly Johnson ($6.6) on a bounce back year or Jason Kipnis ($6.3).

Third Base: Third base appears to be a very top-heavy position for 2012. There are about 8-10 really good hitters and then the talent falls off a cliff fast. I don’t think you can go wrong with many of the top guys, but I especially like the values on Hanley Ramirez ($9.2), Brett Lawrie ($9.0), Adrian Beltre ($9.0), Pablo Sandoval ($8.5) and Aramis Ramirez ($8.2). It will be tough to go wrong with any of these choices and I imagine I will usually play one of those guys depending on schedule. If you have a desire to save some cap at 3B, decent options are Edwin Encarnacion ($6.8) or Mike Moustakas ($7.8), but these guys are close enough in price to the high-end guys that this should really be a position where you don’t drop below Aramis unless someone emerges.

Shortstop: Now when we talk about a thin position, this is what we mean. SS is a mess in drafts this year and that holds true in H2H. Tulo ($11.0) and Reyes ($10.2) are the top-end guys and are definitely priced as such. I imagine I will try and play Tulo when I can in all Coors weeks. Among the cheaper guys, I see some value in Jimmy Rollins ($8.4), Dee Gordon ($8.0) and J.J. Hardy ($7.6). Gordon is definitely a rabbit that we suggested avoiding in last week’s column, but at SS, you sometimes have to take what you can get. Also, he will be leading off so hopefully will have a lot of hits and runs to go with what could be a league leading number of SB’s.

Outfield: This is a very tough position to get a handle on due to the large number of players. We do need three every week so this will likely be a place where you want to save some cap and find value on at least one of your spots. The top guys are pretty self-explanatory so we will works backwards and look for spots where maybe you can save some money.

Starting with guys under $7 million, Nolan Reimold ($4.6) appears to have won the LF job for the Orioles and might even lead off to start the year. After his solid 2009, he has struggled, but at the tag, he may be a good play for you. Cameron Maybin ($5.0) is a bit of a rabbit, but he also should score a lot of runs and toss in 10 HR this year and most importantly, his BA downside, an issue in drafts, does not hurt us here. Brennan Boesch ($5.1) is a popular target for drafts this spring, as he will be hitting second before the Miggy/Prince combo. Lorenzo Cain ($5.6) is the hot riser of spring training 2012, so I have to toss him in here, but I am one who is not buying the spring power carrying over to the real thing. Dayan Viciedo ($6.1) has some power potential and plays in a very nice home park for home runs. Finally, as long as Logan Morrison ($6.8) does not Tweet himself to Double-A, he should provide value at that price tag, but I am not a buyer on his home run outburst in 2011.

Moving up to the mid-range guys, I am quite bullish on Dexter Fowler’s second half breakout last year. He has struggled mightily this spring, but I think he could be a play here in all Coors weeks. Carlos Beltran ($7.6) is a risk in draft leagues where you have to hold him while he goes through his inevitable DL stint, but the joy here is that we can just swap him out once he gets hurt. Chris Young ($7.9) is a guy who could help you since this is a points league. You don’t have to worry about his BA and he plays in a nice park for offense. Mike Morse ($8.9) will be a nice value this years with his 30 HR pop, but not to start the season as he has a lat issue he is still recovering from. Finally, if you are a believer in Jason Heyward ($8.9), he is discounted now due to his down 2011.

You don’t need me to tell you about Matt Kemp and Ryan Braun, but among the guys over $9 million, the guys who I like more than the rest are Corey Hart ($9.0) once he is healthy, Shin Soo Choo ($9.7), Giancarlo “Don’t call me Mike” Stanton ($9.7) and Nelson Cruz ($10.1) when Texas is at home. In addition, I love Carlos Gonzalez ($11.5) and Justin Upton ($11.0) when they are at home for 6 or 7 game weeks.

Pitching Staffs: This is one spot that I believe needs to be broken down every week. So much will come down to who they are facing, where they are pitching and how many games they have that week. Of course, the Phillies will be better than the Orioles, but this is a spot that we will deal with week by week and I will not be suggesting slotting in any staff long-term.

Week 1

Ok, now on to the real business of picking our lineup for Week 1. This Week 1 is a little different than most of the weeks we will be dealing with. There are more off days than usual this week and we have a number of teams with four-game weeks, which only happens again in the All-Star Game week. Games played will play a much bigger factor than usual this week as the difference between four games and five or six is big in a points-based contest. I am guessing Week 1 will be very heavy on schedule plays and I will need a lot of changes before Week 2 and then we can settle in a few long-term plays. For a couple of general notes, the Cardinals are the only team playing 6 games and Texas not only has 5 games, but they are all at home and it looks like it will be nice and warm there all week. Here is how I see Week 1.

Catcher: I am going Matt Wieters for five games at home, facing Minnesota pitchers who don’t scare me and then the #4 and #5 for the Yankees. Wieters is a nice value with a nice schedule. I could also see Yadier Molina or Mike Napoli this week as plays.

First Base: This week I am playing Joey Votto for his five home games. The weather looks fine in Cincy and he gets the Marlins and Cardinals, but misses Josh Johnson and Wainwright and only faces one lefty. Hard to argue against many of the top end guys, but a super sneaky guy this week could be Mitch Moreland for a Texas home week at $7.1 million.

Second Base: This spot is a slam-dunk for me, Ian Kinsler’s price for his overall resume, which means I love this price when he has an all-home week. If you wanted a cheaper option, I could see using Danny Espinosa for five games against mostly bad pitching (except Garza) or maybe Kelly Johnson with five games against five pitchers who don’t scare me, but I think Kinsler is an easy call for Week 1.

Third Base: Another easy call for me as I will take Adrian Beltre at home for five in Texas. He isn’t overly expensive, is a stud and in Texas all week. I could see Aramis if you don’t trust Beltre since Aramis has three home games indoors and then two vs. his old team, but I think Beltre is the guy this week at 3B.

Shortstop: Easily my toughest call of the week and no one stood out to me and I don’t like Elvis Andrus that much in this scoring format. Starlin Castro gets five at home, but he also gets Strasburg, Gio and Zimmermann, which I don’t love. Dee Gordon gets five, but hard to love him in Petco this week. I decided to go with Alexei Ramirez for a road trip to Texas and two more at Cleveland. I don’t love him, but he doesn’t face any elite pitching and he is not too expensive.

Outfield: In the OF, I went with Josh Hamilton, Matt Holliday and Cameron Maybin. Hamilton and Holliday are stud hitters as well as schedule plays. Holliday gets an extra game on the field and Hamilton gets an all-home week. Maybin is a salary cap play. He gets five games and while all five are at Petco, we all need some cap relief and he seemed like a solid guy to only pay $5 million for. So he is in there for the price, but he not a stiff. There are tons of OF options as always and guys like Nelson Cruz and Jay Bruce were also strong considerations here.

DH: I used Carlos Beltran here. Here, I also get some cap savings and an extra game on the field. Might as well use him while he is healthy, at a price he will earn when he is actually upright.

Pitching Staff: The easy call here would be to go with St Louis for an extra game, but I don’t like Lohse throwing twice and can’t stand Jake Westbrook. Wainwright and Garcia should be nice, but I don’t like the matchups on the road at Milwaukee and Cincinnati. I went with the Dodgers for Week 1. They are only the 12th most expensive staff and we get five games with four of them in the best pitcher’s park in the league. In addition, we get two starts from Kershaw against San Diego and Pittsburgh since LA is skipping their #5, which should be very nice. I also gave consideration to the Braves and Nats, but settled on LA.

So in summary, here is my squad for Week 1:

C: Matt Wieters ($8.2)

1B: Joey Votto ($11.2)

2B: Ian Kinsler ($9)

3B: Adrian Beltre ($9)

SS: Alexei Ramirez ($8.1)

OF: Josh Hamilton ($10.9)

OF: Matt Holliday ($10.8)

OF: Cameron Maybin ($5)

UT: Carlos Beltran ($7.6)

P: Los Angeles Dodgers ($20)

Total: $99.8

I’ll be back next week to discuss Week 1 and prep for Week 2.

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